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Football model football_v1

Liga AUF Uruguaya

Progreso crest Progreso vs Defensor Sporting crest Defensor Sporting

Sun 01 Nov 2026, 13:00 · FT 0 - 2

Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5

Confidence

59.9 low

Data quality

84%

sample 1

Model projection

Expected goals from form, attack/defence, H2H, league position and availability.

Progreso

1.89

Expected goals

total 3.19

Defensor Sporting

1.30

Metric Progreso Defensor Sporting
Current form
93%
38%
Attack
48%
60%
Defence
58%
40%
Overall strength
76%
51%
Head-to-head (home share)
50%
League position
67%
Availability (injuries)
100%

Why this prediction?

Poisson model — expected goals 1.89–1.30, form 93/38, H2H 50%, data quality 84%. Missing: h2h.

Model football_v1 · sample size 1 · data quality 84%

Missing sources: h2h

Outcome LOST · Lost — Progreso vs Defensor Sporting (0 - 2), selection "Over 2.5" => LOST.