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Football model football_v1

Carabao Cup

Manchester City crest Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion crest Brighton & Hove Albion

Wed 28 Oct 2026, 19:30 · FT 2 - 2

Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5

Confidence

68.1 medium

Data quality

52%

sample 10

Model projection

Expected goals from form, attack/defence, H2H, league position and availability.

Manchester City

1.82

Expected goals

total 4.70

Brighton & Hove Albion

2.89

Metric Manchester City Brighton & Hove Albion
Current form
70%
86%
Attack
91%
90%
Defence
38%
66%
Overall strength
68%
70%
Head-to-head (home share)
50%
League position
50%
Availability (injuries)
100%

Why this prediction?

Poisson model — expected goals 1.82–2.89, form 70/86, H2H 50%, data quality 52%. Missing: h2h, standings, statistics.

Model football_v1 · sample size 10 · data quality 52%

Missing sources: h2h, standings, statistics

Outcome WON · Won — Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion (2 - 2), selection "Over 2.5" => WON.